The Rockies finished up 2008 at 74-88 in the weak NL West, largely due to an offense that was uncharacteristically weak, as well as a typically inconsistent pitching staff.
2009 looks to be a bit of transition year for the Rockies, as they don't look to have added enough offense to make up for the departure of Matt Holliday, though they should be boosted by having a healthy Troy Tulowitzki in their lineup for the full year, as well as hopefully a bounceback year from Garrett Atkins.
Willy Taveras, who could steal bases but produced no other offense, is finally gone, and Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs will get chances to be full-time starters for the first time in 2009.
Look for the Rockies to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the division behind the Diamondbacks and possibly the Dodgers, but they probably won't compete for a Wild Card berth as their record should be somewhere around .
500 in 2009.
C Chris Iannetta - Iannetta was a top prospect for years before his breakout 2008 that saw him post an OPS of .
895 in 333 ABs.
Iannetta is never going to hit for great average, as he doesn't have great contact skills and thus strikes out a bit too much, but he has good power and should be a 20 home run threat in most seasons, making him one of the elite offensive catchers in the game.
Despite his high K-rate, Iannetta does have good patience at the plate, posting a career OBP of .
368 in 607 ABs.
Defensively, Ianetta still has some work to do, as he has thrown out just 25 of 117 basestealers in his career.
He could stand to make his release a bit quicker, though his throws tend to be acurrate.
Look for Iannetta to put up offensive numbers similar to his 2008 and continue to show improvement defensively as well this season.
1B Todd Helton - Helton has seemed to be part of trade rumors for the last several seasons, but no one has pulled the trigger on a deal for him at this point.
Part of the reason might be the fact that he has seen a significan decrease in his production over the last three seasons, with last season being below-average offensively, as he posted an OPS of .
779 in an injury-shortened campaign.
Helton is going to be 35 at the beginning of the season, and clearly has hit the phase of his career where his skills are in decline.
He is still a solid defensive first baseman, but the days of him posting an OPS above 1.
000 year after year appear to be gone.
The best hope for Colorado fans is that he posts an OPS in the high-.
800s, which would certainly be welcome after last year's debacle.
More realistically, he is going to be in the low-.
800s, which is not acceptable for a first baseman getting paid the dollars he is making.
2B Clint Barmes - Barmes had a very solid 2008, posting an OPS of .
790 as the Rockies' primary second baseman.
However, the peripheral support for his stats simply is not present, as his BABIP was over 30 points higher than his career average, and there looks to be some regression next season.
Barmes is probably a .
720-.
750 OPS player in a normal year.
While that isn't great, it certainly is decent production from second base, and should be at least passable for the next couple of years.
Defensively, Barmes is pretty average, though he does occasionally display range that will surprise you.
Look for him to put up average numbers in 2008, which the Rockies certainly won't mind.
3B Garrett Atkins - Atkins once looked to be the Rockies third baseman for the future, with a phenomenal rookie year that had him primed to be a star.
However, Atkins, who has seen his OPS+ drop from 136 to 97 over the past three seasons, has several negative trends that don't project well for the future.
For one, his IsoD has decreased from .
080 to .
042 over that time period, while his IsoP has decreased from .
227 to .
166.
Atkins came in fourth in NL Rookie of the year voting in 2005, but certainly doesn't look to be a player who can consistently put up an OPS above .
900 anymore.
He'll probably settle into an OPS in the low-.
800s, which certainly isn't awful, but definitely not where the Rockies thought he would be.
Defensively, he lacks range and doesn't have the best first step, but has a solid and accurate arm.
SS Troy Tulowitzki - After signing a $31 million extension prior to the 2008 season, expectations were high for the runner-up to the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year.
However, less than a month into the season, Tulowitzki suffered a torn quadriceps tendon that derailed his season, and he never quite regained his form, posting an OPS of .
733, over 100 points lower than in 2007.
Tulowitzki looks to rebound after a full offseason of training, and should be ready to build on his rookie year.
He has good power and is a solid bet for 25+ home runs, as well as good contact skills.
His plate discipline could use a little work, as he racked up 130 strikeouts in 2007, but he showed improvement in this area in 2008 and should continue to improve.
Defensively, he is at an elite level, and should display excellent range and athleticism in 2009 after a full year of rehab on his leg.
LF Seth Smith - Smith posted solid numbers in backup duty in 2008, putting up a .
785 OPS in 108 ABs.
With the departure of Holliday and Taveras, Smith is now set to enter spring training with a chance to win a starting job.
Smith is 26 years old and projects to hit 12-18 home runs a year, while holding a batting average around .
270.
Smith has showed good plate discipline and has strong peripherals, and I believe that he could be a successful major league hitter who should post an OPS in the mid-.
800s during most seasons.
With him under control for at least the next five seasons, he looks to be a solid investment for the Rockies who can provide a good, low-cost option at a corner outfield spot.
CF Ryan Spilborghs - Spilborghs has seen time filling in for the Rockies during the last three years, but looks to have a starting spot in CF with the departure of Taveras.
He projects to put up a line of somewhere around .
290/.
390/.
450, and should be a significant upgrade offensively over Taveras, who is one of the worst offensive players in the majors.
While he doesn't have great power, he should hit 10-12 home runs a year while chipping in around 25 doubles as well.
Defensively, Spilborghs is right around average, with solid speed, but can occasionally get bad jumps on balls.
In 2009, look for him to bring a consistent spark to the offense that wasn't present with Taveras.
RF Brad Hawpe - Hawpe has seen full-time duty in the outfield for the Rockies for the last three years, and has averaged 25 home runs per year during that time.
He is a legitimate power threat, and is a solid bet for an OPS in the high-.
800s year after year.
He works deep into counts, which results in a slightly higher strikeout rate than is desirable, but also generates a lot of walks with this approach, which makes him very effective in getting on base.
Unfortunately, defensively, Hawpe is well below-average, as just about every metric available to the public rates him as being somewhere around 30 runs below average.
Clearly, most of his value lies in his offense, and he looks to continue his strong performance there in 2009.
SP Aaron Cook - While Cook doesn't have ace-type stuff, as evidenced by his 3.
58 K/9 for his career, as well as the fact that he has given up 1070 hits in 929 innings, he is successful for the Rockies because he doesn't give up home runs and does not walk batters, thus minimizing the damage that hitters do against him.
Cook's career HR/9 is just .
70, which is shocking, given all of the innings he has logged in Coors Field.
He is a rare case of a pitcher who allows hitters to hit .
290 against him for his career, yet still has been successful in the majors.
While not a prototypical ace, he still has a place near the top of the Rockies' rotation, but will be forced into the #1 slot for 2009, due to a lack of better options.
SP Ubaldo Jimenez - Jimenez had a very solid year for the Rockies in 2008, going 12-12 with a 3.
99 ERA, while giving up 182 hits in 198.
2 innings and striking out 172.
Jimenez did walk 103 batters in 2008, which worked out to a BB/9 of 4.
67, which is right in line with his minor league numbers and limited major league duty.
He will need to drastically reduce this over the next year or two, or he will risk becoming a Daniel Cabrera-type who simply cannot control his stuff, and thus is incredibly prone to giving up huge innings.
Jimenez has good stuff, and should show continued improvement in his second full season in the majors in 2009, though his control issues will need to be addressed.
SP Jason Marquis - Marquis is probably going to have a very hard time in Colorado in 2008.
While he has posted ERAs in the mid-4s over the last two seasons for the Cardinals, his peripherals have showed trends downward, as well as the fact that he has been somewhat lucky with his ERA as well.
His BB/9 has increased in each of the last four seasons, which clearly doesn't look good.
His HR/9 has decreased as well, which would normally be a good thing, but simply cannot be expected to continue in Colorado next year.
Marquis simply doesn't have the stuff to get by anymore, and probably is best suited for being a #5 starter, but is going to be asked to do far more for the Rockies.
Look for an ERA around 5.
3 and maybe 8-10 wins from Marquis in 2009.
SP Jeff Francis - After a solid 2006 and 2007, Francis regressed in 2008, and now also faces the possibility of surgery to repair damage to his left shoulder.
Last season, Francis went 4-10 with a 5.
01 ERA in 143.
2 innings, giving up 164 hits in the process.
The main culprits in his decline last season were a jump in his HR-rate and a slight decline in his K-rate.
His ERA has nearly mimicked his FIP for his career, so he looks ot be a pitcher who should post an ERA in the mid-4s when healthy.
However, his questionable health going into this season has created questions of how much he can pitch this season, and whether or not he will be effective when he finally gets into games.
If he opts for surgery and is out for a significant amount of time, expect the Rockies to go with Jorge de la Rosa in his place.
SP Greg Smith - Smith came over from the Athletics in the Matt Holliday deal and projects to be in competition for the #5 spot going into spring training.
He spent all of last year with the A's, posting a 7-16 record with a 4.
16 ERA in 190 innings.
Smith doesn't give up a lot of hits, but his walk totals were a bit disturbing last year, as he did walk 87 batters.
That will need to improve if he wants to continue to build on his rookie season and have any type of success in Coors Field.
Smith's minor league numbers suggest that his control should improve in his second season, as well as potentially seeing a slight increase in his K-rate as well.
Look for his overall ERA to be about the same as last year, possibly a bit higher due to Coors, but he should continue to build on his rookie season and shows signs of being a solid #2/3 pitcher down the road.
CL Huston Street - Street is going to be in an intense battle with Manny Corpas for the Rockies' closer job, and there's a good chance that they could end up splitting time there.
We've decided to list Street here because he looks to have the inside edge going into spring training, but anything could happen.
Street has been a victim of decreasing stuff and injuries over the past several years, as he missed time with injury in 2007, and then saw his walk rate spike in 2008.
Street has never been completely dominant, but he is still on the level of closers just below Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, and Francisco Rodriguez.
One cause for concern with Street is that he is a flyball pitcher, which is always dangerous in Coors Field, and certainly something to keep an eye on.
Best case, Street ends up as the Rockies' closer and posts an ERA around 3.
00 with 30 saves.
Worst case, he loses the job early on in the year and becomes and 8th-inning guy who has an ERA around 4.
00.