U.S. media: the wealthy can not become another Japan
In an article in the website of Harvard Business Review, United States, it was asked how much the China's competitive threat exactly was. From 1945 to 1990, Japan has become rich from the poor, ranking among the world's richest countries and posing a direct threat to U.S. Today, China seems to copy the Japanese economic miracle, and the population in China is 10 times that of Japan. Like Japan, China has also experienced decades of rapid economic growth. The question now is: for the U.S., is China becoming a serious economic rival? Can China copy the rising route of Japan in history and become another Japan?
The majority of Americans hold this view. The polls also show most Americans believe that China is the world's number one economic power.
However, this is a dangerous illusion, because the truth is the opposite. Some experts analyzed that although China is now undergoing a rapid growth in economy, the historical background as well as the increasing model has determined to some extent that it is impossible for it to copy the economic miracle in Japan. For various reasons, China is unlikely to repeat the success in Japan. Most importantly, compared to Japan in the second half period of the last century, China is now facing the much more difficult international environment. In the foreseeable future, China and the United States economy will continue to be more complementary than competitive. China offers the low-cost labor to promote the development of companies from other countries but the relatively low investment in the innovation of technology has prevented it from growing fast in being creative.
Japan is able to rise during the Cold War, and this can be described as a godsend. Japan managed to set up local companies the international competitiveness through targeted investment and trade barriers. The United States needed the anti-Soviet allies, and thus it not only tolerate protectionism in Japan, but also transferred advanced technology to Japan and subsidized Japanese companies.
In contrast, the rise of China happens in the WTO era. The world's rich countries will no longer tolerate the set of protectionism in Japan. United States not only failed to give China's preferential treatment but also tried to pry to open the door to the China's economy through WTO litigation, and also blocked other countries' sales to China of "dual use" technology. In short, Japan was entitled to asymmetric open --- access to foreign technology and export markets, but e shut out foreign competition. While China is fully open.
The majority of Americans hold this view. The polls also show most Americans believe that China is the world's number one economic power.
However, this is a dangerous illusion, because the truth is the opposite. Some experts analyzed that although China is now undergoing a rapid growth in economy, the historical background as well as the increasing model has determined to some extent that it is impossible for it to copy the economic miracle in Japan. For various reasons, China is unlikely to repeat the success in Japan. Most importantly, compared to Japan in the second half period of the last century, China is now facing the much more difficult international environment. In the foreseeable future, China and the United States economy will continue to be more complementary than competitive. China offers the low-cost labor to promote the development of companies from other countries but the relatively low investment in the innovation of technology has prevented it from growing fast in being creative.
Japan is able to rise during the Cold War, and this can be described as a godsend. Japan managed to set up local companies the international competitiveness through targeted investment and trade barriers. The United States needed the anti-Soviet allies, and thus it not only tolerate protectionism in Japan, but also transferred advanced technology to Japan and subsidized Japanese companies.
In contrast, the rise of China happens in the WTO era. The world's rich countries will no longer tolerate the set of protectionism in Japan. United States not only failed to give China's preferential treatment but also tried to pry to open the door to the China's economy through WTO litigation, and also blocked other countries' sales to China of "dual use" technology. In short, Japan was entitled to asymmetric open --- access to foreign technology and export markets, but e shut out foreign competition. While China is fully open.
