January 2014 Earnings Season - Sticker Shock to the Markets and Stocks
Well, we've all by now considered the economic predictions for 2014 both here at home in the US and abroad.
We've heard the Euro Zone should be about 2-3% GDP growth and in the US continued growth ramp up to 4%.
We've also heard that emerging markets are slowing down and China may show signs of robust growth tapering off a tad bit, even if the Communist Government denies anything by continued 8-10% year-over-year continued growth until hell freezes over and they have 500,000 people living in lunar colonies on the Moon and yet, one has to ask if these predictions are any good.
I question all of it, but let's talk shall we? There was an interesting Forbes article going into the third week of January 2014 after the stock market realignment following the earnings reports of several stars of the S&P and DOW stocks.
The article was titled; "Week Ahead: Earnings & Economics To Move Markets," by Mark McSherry published on January 19, 2014.
The piece stated; "The S&P 500 is down 0.
5% so far this year - and stocks face another potentially volatile week ahead with a barrage of earnings from major corporations as well as economic indicators and news from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
After stocks rising more than 30% in a fantastic 2013, some market analysts are predicting a 10% correction in 2014 and worry that any major disappointments in earnings season might just be the trigger.
" Yes, I think "the street" and analysts got a little too far ahead of themselves and didn't see the writing on the wall, even fell for the political operative socialist narrative that the economy is growing fine and the recession is over.
Not if the socialists continue to hamper the growth.
And corporations should not assume free flowing money through QE forever.
And the consumers, some of them were hiding under rocks during the Christmas Retail Season.
So, it's time to readjust earnings predictions and face a more realistic potential eventuality in 2014.
"Flat Plus GDP growth" not necessarily 4% even with all the safe haven money flowing out of former emerging market star nations.
If we don't see a safe haven flight to US markets then we won't see continued jobs growth, or the ability to pull-back on Federal Government Spending (waste) trying to stimulate the economy, instead we will continue to undermine the economy, choosing sector rotation stimulation based on lobbyist requests, corporate welfare and pure political advantage in states with the biggest and strongest unions, private and public.
This is a dead-end game and only slows the ability of the free-market to recover.
Then comes more regulatory intervention, more crony capitalism, subsidies, proverbial shortages and the bubble builders out to collect more cash increasing the so-called "inequality" false problem debate.
Since our government can't leave well enough alone and since I believe it will be business as usual in Washington DC, I just don't see how we are going to have any sort of sustained 4% growth in 2014 when the stock market looks like it needs a correction of somewhere between 10 and 20%.
That's going to hurt, and that's going to decrease jobs, not promote revival of the economy.
Sorry, I just don't see it.
So, take your little Beige Sheets and Socialist Economic predictions from the New York Times and roll them up as tight as possible, but don't shove them up our rears, just lock the door and do with them what you will.
Please consider all this and think on it.
We've heard the Euro Zone should be about 2-3% GDP growth and in the US continued growth ramp up to 4%.
We've also heard that emerging markets are slowing down and China may show signs of robust growth tapering off a tad bit, even if the Communist Government denies anything by continued 8-10% year-over-year continued growth until hell freezes over and they have 500,000 people living in lunar colonies on the Moon and yet, one has to ask if these predictions are any good.
I question all of it, but let's talk shall we? There was an interesting Forbes article going into the third week of January 2014 after the stock market realignment following the earnings reports of several stars of the S&P and DOW stocks.
The article was titled; "Week Ahead: Earnings & Economics To Move Markets," by Mark McSherry published on January 19, 2014.
The piece stated; "The S&P 500 is down 0.
5% so far this year - and stocks face another potentially volatile week ahead with a barrage of earnings from major corporations as well as economic indicators and news from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
After stocks rising more than 30% in a fantastic 2013, some market analysts are predicting a 10% correction in 2014 and worry that any major disappointments in earnings season might just be the trigger.
" Yes, I think "the street" and analysts got a little too far ahead of themselves and didn't see the writing on the wall, even fell for the political operative socialist narrative that the economy is growing fine and the recession is over.
Not if the socialists continue to hamper the growth.
And corporations should not assume free flowing money through QE forever.
And the consumers, some of them were hiding under rocks during the Christmas Retail Season.
So, it's time to readjust earnings predictions and face a more realistic potential eventuality in 2014.
"Flat Plus GDP growth" not necessarily 4% even with all the safe haven money flowing out of former emerging market star nations.
If we don't see a safe haven flight to US markets then we won't see continued jobs growth, or the ability to pull-back on Federal Government Spending (waste) trying to stimulate the economy, instead we will continue to undermine the economy, choosing sector rotation stimulation based on lobbyist requests, corporate welfare and pure political advantage in states with the biggest and strongest unions, private and public.
This is a dead-end game and only slows the ability of the free-market to recover.
Then comes more regulatory intervention, more crony capitalism, subsidies, proverbial shortages and the bubble builders out to collect more cash increasing the so-called "inequality" false problem debate.
Since our government can't leave well enough alone and since I believe it will be business as usual in Washington DC, I just don't see how we are going to have any sort of sustained 4% growth in 2014 when the stock market looks like it needs a correction of somewhere between 10 and 20%.
That's going to hurt, and that's going to decrease jobs, not promote revival of the economy.
Sorry, I just don't see it.
So, take your little Beige Sheets and Socialist Economic predictions from the New York Times and roll them up as tight as possible, but don't shove them up our rears, just lock the door and do with them what you will.
Please consider all this and think on it.
