It's been roughly two months since Jeb Bush announced his intention to potentially run for President. Now, enough polling had been released - and trends established - to get a sense of how things are going for the early establishment favorite.

The Bush Name Isn't Necessarily a Poison Pill

The first interesting poll comes from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. They tested Republicans nationwide on the the 2016 contest, and the popularity of various Republicans.


What we find is former US President George W. Bush is still quite popular with Republicans at +53 (74% favorable and 21% unfavorable.) His numbers are even more impressive with just tea party voters. Despite being politically aligned with his brother and his also-popular father, Jeb manages just a +11 rating (40% favorable, 29% unfavorable) among Republican voters. Over in Texas, Team Bush was hoping to do some damage in the state that he has deep ties in. His brother led as Governor prior to being elected President and Jeb attended and graduated from the University of Texas. His son, George P. Bush, easily won both the Republican Primary (73%) and the general election (61%) for statewide office in 2014. But a recent Texas poll found Jeb badly trailing both Ted Cruz and Scott Walker, two potential candidates who likely share many of the same voters. The problem right now isn't the Bush name, necessarily.

Jeb is not George

This has been discussed here a bit before, but Jeb is no George. George W.

Bush was "one of us," a guy who liked to work out in the yard and could relate to blue-collar workers. Jeb is a different beast. He comes off as an elitist at times and may have trouble connecting with the voters his brother successfully wooed. That he has been mostly inconsequential in Republican politics over the last decade, and has thus far spent a majority of his time with the donor class in the early stages of his campaign has not done him many favors. Can Jeb get the broad support President Bush gained and holds today? The PPP poll shows Jeb's major ideological support comes from self-described moderates, the one sub-group he dominates. This is a major change from George who was and remains viewed favorably by "somewhat" and "very" conservative Republicans.

Jeb has a Serious Base Issue

This is probably the most obvious statement of all. But the early figures aren't favorable. "Very conservative" voters make up almost 4 in 10 of the Republican and only Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are underwater with those voters. He is okay with "somewhat conservative" voter and solid with moderates, but it might now be enough. While it may be easy to point to Mitt Romney's 2012 nomination victory, there's a big difference at play in 2016. And that difference is...

The "Electable Card" is Not An Exclusive One

Mitt Romney's wild card in 2012 was that most primary voters saw him as the most electable candidate, and that was a major factor in his win. He had everything that the other contenders didn't have. He had the fundraising ability, he had the executive experience, and he just looked and sounded like a President. Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul were never going to convince enough voters - including conservative ones - that they had a shot against President Obama. But 2016 is different. Jeb isn't the only candidate who holds the credibility card. Governors Scott Walker, Rick Perry, and Chris Christie, along with US Senator Marco Rubio have all been deemed "presidential-worthy" by the political establishment. (Anti-establishment candidates Ted Cruz and Rand Paul could also make a plausible case and wouldn't be considered fringe candidates.) Jeb won't pick up a huge chunk of support simply because he may be considered electable as many candidates fit that bill.

Walker is a Major Threat

In 2012 there was a carousel of "not Romney" candidates, with polls showing Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and others quickly rising up and falling down again. Every week there was a new flavor of the week. Some seem to think that Scott Walker is that flavor of the week, but the polls tell us something different. The 2012 cast of not Romney's had a very specific base of conservative voters unhappy with the Mitt Romney coronation. This is different. Walker scores a 42/14 with Republicans not aligned with the tea party, and a massive 78/4 with those aligned with the tea party. Only Ben Carson is similarly impressive as a dual threat. Jeb is at a slightly worse 48/22 with those unaffiliated with the tea party and an abysmal 29/50 with tea party voters, which make up roughly one third of voters. Walker's appeal is, so far, wider than Bush's. While candidates are typically up and down depending on the region, polls in Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and California have all shown him equally strong. That his resume checks off the executive experience box has given him an edge over Carson in polls, who himself often leads Jeb as well.

Conservatives are Dominating the Field

Jeb Bush should be way up in the polls. He has the name recognition, he was the successful Governor of a key state, and he is the first major candidate to quasi-announce a run. But his numbers nationwide and in key states have remained in the mid-teens since announcing. Perhaps most worrisome for Team Bush is that his numbers remain low despite being the only major establishment candidate currently pulling in voters. Chris Christie continues his free-fall, but his supporters did not fall to Jeb if the polls trends are any indicator. The combined numbers of Walker, Carson, Cruz, and Paul - four candidates who would presumably share a similar base - are inching towards 60%. There's a clear mandate for a strong conservative candidate, the only question is who will eventually emerge, and if Jeb can turn things around.

But...

He is still a Bush. The last name is what separates him from Indiana's Mike Pence or Louisiana's Bobby Jindal. He will raise a ton of cash and he will get plenty of longtime, big-name Bush loyalists as advisers, supporters, and donors. The conservative-hostile mainstream media has also held back on Jeb, instead offering enough puff pieces to make most conservatives rightfully skeptical. (Look at the media treatment of Walker and Jeb to see who they want to bring down.) But getting people to like you once an opinion has been informed is a hard thing to do. He isn't backing away from Common Core or illegal immigration, so a large chunk of voters will effectively be abandoned by him altogether.