What Is Horse Racing Probability and How Can You Profit From Betting on Horse Races?
Before going into the specifics of winning money playing the ponies, let's clear the air and get real.
Winning money consistently on horse races or making a long term profit is very difficult.
Very few people every really do it.
It isn't my intention to mislead you and to suggest that you've found the key to the mint in this article.
On the other hand, you may find enough information to help you to become a better horse racing handicapper and to learn how to handicap with profit in mind.
What you will need to succeed at any difficult task that is repetitious is a system or method that repeats a successful routine or series of steps that lead to a positive conclusion.
In other words, in this case, a horse racing system.
I'm not talking about one of those ridiculous things you see advertised that guarantees to make money like an ATM machine, but rather a serious method to look at the horses and determine which ones are in good shape and will be able to compete for the win.
The basic handicapping factors that are probably the best to use for this purpose are speed, class, pace, and recent form which is determined by a horse's finishes in its most recent races and that must be weighed against the quality of the competition.
For the factor of speed you may want to use the speed at today's distance and surface if you have enough data to go on.
For instance if today's race is a six furlong race on the dirt, you may want to judge the runners based on each ones races at the distance on dirt.
After you have a raw figure like average speed, it may be filtered or adjusted by post position and pace.
Some of the better racing forms and programs now provide detailed information on the impact of post positions and running styles.
A horse with a running style that doesn't win at the distance and surface may be adjusted down to a lower position in the hierarchy of probability while one that fits the track model may be left at its current position or even moved up a notch.
Next look at all the horses once you have them in a reasonable order from most likely to win to least likely to win and assign odds to each one that realistically reflect the horse's chances.
You may use it's win average to determine just how often it wins.
Figure about a third of the races it has run were at less than optimal conditions.
The horse with the best post and speed in today's race should be the top contender but if it shows few wins for many tries, it may be a false favorite.
Winning money consistently on horse races or making a long term profit is very difficult.
Very few people every really do it.
It isn't my intention to mislead you and to suggest that you've found the key to the mint in this article.
On the other hand, you may find enough information to help you to become a better horse racing handicapper and to learn how to handicap with profit in mind.
What you will need to succeed at any difficult task that is repetitious is a system or method that repeats a successful routine or series of steps that lead to a positive conclusion.
In other words, in this case, a horse racing system.
I'm not talking about one of those ridiculous things you see advertised that guarantees to make money like an ATM machine, but rather a serious method to look at the horses and determine which ones are in good shape and will be able to compete for the win.
The basic handicapping factors that are probably the best to use for this purpose are speed, class, pace, and recent form which is determined by a horse's finishes in its most recent races and that must be weighed against the quality of the competition.
For the factor of speed you may want to use the speed at today's distance and surface if you have enough data to go on.
For instance if today's race is a six furlong race on the dirt, you may want to judge the runners based on each ones races at the distance on dirt.
After you have a raw figure like average speed, it may be filtered or adjusted by post position and pace.
Some of the better racing forms and programs now provide detailed information on the impact of post positions and running styles.
A horse with a running style that doesn't win at the distance and surface may be adjusted down to a lower position in the hierarchy of probability while one that fits the track model may be left at its current position or even moved up a notch.
Next look at all the horses once you have them in a reasonable order from most likely to win to least likely to win and assign odds to each one that realistically reflect the horse's chances.
You may use it's win average to determine just how often it wins.
Figure about a third of the races it has run were at less than optimal conditions.
The horse with the best post and speed in today's race should be the top contender but if it shows few wins for many tries, it may be a false favorite.
